sábado, 12 de março de 2011

A parábola da janela quebrada (2)

BUT WHAT THE HELL DO I KNOW... about tsunamis as "stimulus"?, por John Papola

Depois de ter feito aqui referência à defesa do "potencial" económico do desastre de ontem, no Japão, por parte de Larry Summers (secretário do Tesouro na administração Clinton, antigo presidente da Universidade de Harvard e ex-director do Conselho Económico Nacional de Obama), Papola recorda-nos o que outros keynesianos, a começar por John Maynard himself, pensam sobre as "oportunidades" que desastres naturais ou guerras possibilitam. Papola evoca algumas citações de autores defensores desta absurda, senão mesmo economicamente criminosa, doutrina:
«Pyramid-building, earthquakes, even wars may serve to increase wealth, if the education of our statesmen on the principles of the classical economics stands in the way of anything better.», John Maynard Keynes em "Teoria geral do emprego, do juro e da moeda", 1936
«…were the war to end suddenly within the next 6 months, were we again planning to wind up our war effort in the greatest haste, to demobilize our armed forces, to liquidate price controls, to shift from astronomical deficits to even the large deficits of the thirties–then there would be ushered in the greatest period of unemployment and industrial dislocation which any economy has ever faced». Paul Samuelson o keynesiano matemático, 1943, sobre a desgraça que seria se a II Grande Guerra acabasse cedo demais.
E claro que nesta pequena lista não poderia deixar de aparecer o keynesiano-mor dos tempos que correm, Paul Krugman:
«Hate to say this, but [Bush] is right when he says» “I think actually the spending in the war might help with jobs…because we’re buying equipment, and people are working. I think this economy is down because we built too many houses and the economy’s adjusting.”
«In fact, I’d say that the sources of the economy’s expansion from 2003 to 2007 were, in order, the housing bubble, the war, and — very much in third place — tax cuts».

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