quarta-feira, 20 de abril de 2011

Verdade, ciência, modelos matemáticos e peer-review

Estes dois pequenos trechos, a meu ver, merecem cuidade reflexão. O texto de Alan Carlin linkado é uma peça notável por parte de um Phd em economia e, simultaneamente, com uma licenciatura(?) em Física que, enquanto economista, se recusa à partida a aceitar que os dados de outras ciências que lhe são fornecidos como input sejam indiscutíveis e insusceptíveis de serem questionados. Muitos projectos ruinosos não teriam sido feitos neste país caso esta posição ética tivesse sido assumida pelos intervenientes no cálculo do custo-benefício.
«In my career in academia, however, I discovered to my dismay that many of my colleagues had little interest in the search for truth, however one might understand or pursue it. To them, their research and publication amounted to a game in which the winning players receive the greatest rewards in salary, research funding, and professional acclaim. They understood that because of cloistered academic inbreeding, economists at the most prestigious universities consider the “smartest guys” to be those who employ the most advanced, complex, and incomprehensible mathematics in their “modeling” and “empirical testing.” Robert Higgs, Truth and Freedom in Economic Analysis and Economic Policy Making
«An important footnote here is that valid science as used here is determined by whether it is based on the most relevant observational tests and the scientific method, not by whether it has or has not appeared in a peer-reviewed journal. Peer-review may play an important role in determining which articles are published, but does not guarantee that the assumptions and hypotheses used represent valid science since the primary requirement for successful peer review is that other experts agree with the author. Particularly if enough experts agree on one particular viewpoint or if experts who do not agree are excluded from the peer review, peer-review does not guarantee scientific validity(...)». Alan Carlin, A Multidisciplinary, Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change

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