Lendas e realidades (5)

De acordo com a opinião publicada - e recorrentemente relembrada - Nouriel Roubini passa por ser aquele economista genial que previu a grande crise de 2008 (nunca se fala que uma inteira escola económica - a Austríaca - há muito anunciava que as políticas da Fed e das bolhas que as mesmas criavam iriam redundar num desastre monumental).

Michael Suede resolveu recordar umas certas declarações que Roubini fez à Bloomberg em 2009:

Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global economic crisis, said a forecast by investor Jim Rogers that gold will double to at least $2,000 an ounce is “utter nonsense.”

There is no inflation or “near-depression” to drive gold prices that high, Roubini said today at the Inside Commodities Conference in New York. If a severe depression came to pass, with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins, “maybe you want some gold in that scenario,” Roubini said.

“Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense,” Roubini said.

Quanto a esta previsão, veja-se, por exemplo, aqui ou o gráfico seguinte que traduz a evolução da cotação do ouro nos últimos 30 dias:

E o que tinha dito Jim Rogers, ao Financial Times, de 3 de Novembro de 2009, para justificar uma tão definitiva profecia por parte de Roubini?

"I do expect a currency crisis, or semi-crisis, some time in the next year or two because there are so many imbalances in the world. And, that may sound radical but it’s always worked that way whenever there have been lots of problems you’ve had problems in the currency markets." - Jim Rogers

E Wenzel remata:

This is the power of Austrian economic theory vs. Keynesian gibberish. Rogers applies common sense logic while Roubini throws all common sense out the window. The difference in the accuracy of their predictions needs no further commentary on my part.